Quantum Computing & The Quantum Tech Race —Everything You Need To Know
Analysing quantum computers & the global quantum computing race & how it could impact industries in the years to come
Quantum computers are the next revolution in computing that we are about to see worldwide. Quantum computers leverage the principles of quantum mechanics from quantum physics to process information in ways that classical computers cannot & they could open up unheard-of computing power & impact several industries in diverse ways making traditional computers obsolete. I briefly touched upon this topic in my Ideas series of posts, which you can find here, but read on for a more detailed take…
How Do Quantum Computers Work?
The key aspect is that unlike traditional computers, which use bits represented as 0s and 1s, i.e. on & off switches corresponding to a 1 or 0, quantum computers use qubits, which can exist in multiple states i.e. 0 & 1 simultaneously thanks to quantum superposition.
To explain this concept of a bit vs a qubit, in terms of processing, think of a maze.
There's a giant maze which a computer has to solve. Now what a traditional computer does is when solving a maze, a standard computer works sequentially, testing each possible path one by one until it finds a solution. Depending on the maze's complexity, this process can take seconds, minutes, or even years for particularly large problems.
In contrast, a quantum computer operates fundamentally differently. Instead of using traditional bits that are either "on" or "off," i.e. 1 or 0, quantum computers rely on qubits, which can exist in a state known as superposition—being both "on" and "off" i.e. 0 & 1 at the same time. While this might sound counterintuitive, it reflects the bizarre realities of quantum physics at the atomic level.
This unique property of qubits allows quantum computers to process many calculations, potentially thousands or millions at the same time. So when solving a maze, a quantum computer can evaluate all possible routes simultaneously, delivering a solution almost instantly. This capability enables quantum computers to tackle computations so complex that even today’s most advanced supercomputers would require millions of years to complete them. This transformative potential demonstrates why quantum computing is a game-changer in terms of the evolution of computing technology worldwide.
Applications and Threats
Quantum computing isn’t just about speed & computational power it’s also about solving problems deemed unsolvable by classical computers. For example, it could revolutionize pharmaceutical research by simulating molecules at an atomic level, leading to breakthroughs in medicine. Similarly, industries like logistics and artificial intelligence stand to benefit from quantum processing power.
However, with great power comes significant risk. As highlighted in the video below, “Quantum computers pose a significant threat to encryption,” because they can factorize large numbers, just like the maze example I mentioned earlier, which essentially is the backbone of modern cryptography. This capability would render current security systems obsolete, making sensitive data vulnerable.
This impending threat is why financial institutions, like HSBC, are already experimenting with quantum-resistant encryption systems based on quantum key distribution (QKD), a technology that uses photons to create unhackable keys.
Technological Developments
However, there are extraordinary engineering challenges behind quantum computing. Qubits are incredibly sensitive and require isolation from any external interference to function correctly. Companies like IBM have created advanced quantum computers, such as the IBM Quantum System 2, which operate in cryogenic environments including temperatures near absolute zero, to maintain qubit stability and performance.
As Hannah Fry notes, “To keep the qubits stable, they are stored in a complex cooling system that’s colder than outer space.” These extreme conditions highlight both the complexity and the fragility of quantum computers but despite these hurdles, tech giants like IBM and Google are investing heavily to improve scalability and reliability.
Geopolitical Race and Investment
Quantum computing has become a global race, with countries like the United States and China vying for dominance. China has been particularly aggressive in securing patents and developing satellite-based quantum communication systems. These systems aim to provide secure, unhackable global communications by using quantum entanglement and photons.
“Jian-Wei Pan, the so-called father of quantum communication in China, is working on launching smaller, cost-effective satellites to establish a quantum internet,” Fry explains. This technological arms race underscores the potential of quantum technology to reshape international power dynamics.
In terms of investment, countries are pledging billions of dollars to quantum computing research. The EU has committed €1 billion (approximately $1.08 billion) through its Quantum Flagship program, aiming to build a competitive quantum industry over ten years. The program funds diverse research and industry collaborations. While exact figures are less transparent, China is believed to invest significantly, with estimates suggesting billions of dollars allocated to quantum technology research. China operates the world’s largest quantum communication network, turning its focus on national security and innovation stemming from quantum computing research. This is apart from American tech companies like IBM & Google using government funding for their quantum computing research.
The Quantum Arms Race
The risks associated with this technological arms race are aplenty. One concern is the potential for export controls and restrictions on international collaboration, which could slow global innovation. As Hannah Fry notes, while early quantum research was largely collaborative, rising geopolitical tensions have created barriers, with countries wary of sharing breakthroughs that might be exploited against them.
Furthermore, the disparity between nations with advanced quantum capabilities and those without could exacerbate global inequalities. For example, nations lagging in quantum technology may struggle to protect their data from quantum-enabled cyberattacks in the future, creating vulnerabilities that could be exploited by more advanced powers.
The Timeline For When Quantum Computers Will Become Mainstream
The timeline for quantum computers to become mainstream remains uncertain, but experts agree it is still years, if not decades, away. While significant progress has been made, challenges like error rates, qubit stability, and scalability apart from its temperature requirements must be resolved. While early commercial use in fields like pharmaceuticals, logistics, encryption, and materials science might happen within the next 10 years, widespread mainstream adoption will likely take longer.
However, Hannah Fry, in conversation with experts in her video for Bloomberg suggests that it could happen sooner in terms of communication.
"Absolutely there's an increasing realization that the quantum computer is coming." "How far away do you reckon it is?" "Well now that's a very difficult question to answer if I was a betting man maybe I would say 5 to seven years." "There are no may, here it's not if this is going to happen it's when it's going to happen and it's the total acceptance that when it happens our existing communication systems are no longer fit for purpose and that puts you in a position where you have no choice but to find something else that works and is secure some have made more progress."
In her video for Bloomberg, mathematician & writer Hannah Fry visits quantum computing labs across the globe & talks to experts about this new tech & the impending ramifications it can have globally.
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