Is The World Getting Better Or Worse? — Ten Global Trends That Reveal The Picture
A macro view that answers the question — “Are things getting better or worse?”
Being an informed individual in today’s day & age might lead you to the cynical conclusion that the world is getting far worse than it is getting better — blame social media & doomscrolling.
In a survey of Americans, 65% responded that the world was getting worse, while only 6% thought that the world was getting better.
This isn’t something new, evolution, in itself, favours a negativity bias.
But while progress tries to mask itself, there’s a book written by Ronald Bailey and Marian L. Tupy published in 2020, called Ten Global Trends Every Smart Person Should Know that basically addresses the question, “Are things generally getting better or worse?”
In the book they analyse ten important macro-level trends and further evaluate 60 or more granular trends in eight categories: Health, People, Work, Technology, Natural Resources, Nature etc.
While their data is now four (or now five) years old, their analyses are of long-term global trends, measured in decades and centuries, not in months and years.
Below are the 10 major trends they’ve covered, which paint a rather surprisingly positive picture…
Trend 1: The Global Economic Enrichment Per Capita
Since 1820, the world’s economy has grown over 100 times bigger, while the population has increased by less than 8 times.
So, economic output per capita has increased by roughly 12x.
Do the math, and here’s the punchline: the average person’s economic output has increased by roughly 12 times. That’s 12 times more wealth, and opportunity per capita, on average.
And it’s not stopping there. By 2100, the global economy is expected to grow nearly fivefold (5x), even as the world’s population peaks and starts to decline. In essence, we’re fewer people, producing far more.
In simple terms, we’ve become richer & more productive individually & as a whole, and the future looks even more prosperous.
Trend 2: The Significant Decline Of Poverty
Back in 1820, a staggering 84% of the world lived in extreme poverty. Fast forward to 1981, and while things had improved, 42% of the global population was still struggling to survive on the bare minimum.
By 2018, the share of people living in extreme poverty had dropped to just 8.6%, according to the World Bank.
In short, extreme poverty has drastically declined, and today, far fewer people are trapped in the chasms of poverty than at any time in the last century.
Trend 3: The Myth of Scarcity
In 1968, Paul Ehrlich’s The Population Bomb painted a grim picture: overpopulation and overconsumption would deplete our resources and lead to global disaster. But it didn’t happen.
As the authors of Ten Global Trends point out, the pool of resources isn’t a fixed number. In fact, between 1980 and 2017, the inflation-adjusted prices of 50 key commodities fell by 36.3%. When measured by how much work it took to afford them, the drop was even steeper — commodities that cost an hour or 60 minutes of wages in 1980 took only 21 minutes by 2017.
As the authors point out “Humanity hasn’t run out of a single so-called “non-renewable” resource yet.” Innovation and adaptability continue to outpace consumption. Far from scarcity, we’ve made resources cheaper and more accessible.
Trend 4: The Population Tipping Point
Global population growth is slowing, and experts now predict it will peak at around 9.8 billion people by 2080, before dipping slightly to 9.5 billion by 2100. (Newer projections suggest this peak might happen even earlier.)
Most developed nations already have fertility rates below the replacement level, and the world’s maximum population estimates keep shrinking. The tipping point — when population growth flips into decline — is steadily being moved up on the timeline.
This shift marks a major demographic turning point, as humanity transitions from an era of rapid growth to one of stabilization even in the event of eventual population decline.
Trend 5: An End To Famine
For most of history, food scarcity was the norm. But since 1961, the global average daily food supply i.e. the global average population-weighted food supply per person has jumped from 2,196 calories per person to 2,962 calories in 2017 — a 35% increase in just over half a century or 56 years to be exact.
To put it in perspective, a moderately active adult male needs 2,200–2,800 calories per day, while a moderately active female requires 1,800–2,000 calories. That means most people today have access to more than enough food to meet their needs.
Even in sub-Saharan Africa, the average daily food supply rose from 1,800 calories in 1961 to 2,449 calories in 2017. What was once the world’s most food-insecure region now enjoys access to nutrition levels comparable to Portugal in the early 1960s.
Today, famines have completely been eradicated & they’re only present in some areas like in war zones. The era of widespread starvation is, for the most part, a thing of the past.
Trend 6: Nature’s Comeback
The planet is getting greener. Between 1982 and 2016, the global tree canopy grew by an impressive 2.24 million square kilometers — an area larger than Alaska and Montana combined. In the United States and Canada alone, tree cover expanded by 34% and 15%, respectively.
Forests aren’t just expanding; they’re also working hard. A 2011 study in the journal Nature Climate Change found that global forest growth absorbs 25–33% of the carbon dioxide emitted from burning fossil fuels each year, acting as a crucial carbon sink.
This increase in woodlands suggests humanity is stepping back from certain natural areas, creating room for ecosystems to recover and other species to thrive.
Trend 7: The Urban Revolution
In 1900, farming dominated life in the U.S., with 41% of Americans working on farmland. Today, that number is under 2%, as cities have become the hubs of modern life.
The World Bank notes that “No country has transitioned to middle income without industrialization and urbanization, and none has reached high income without thriving cities.”
Urban areas also offer environmental benefits: city dwellers consume less electricity, emit less CO2, and occupy smaller land & carbon footprints compared to rural populations.
Trend 8: The Rise Of Democracy
Democracy is on the upswing. Between 1989 and 2017, the percentage of countries classified as full democracies increased from 31% to 49%. Meanwhile, autocracies took a nosedive, dropping from 39% to just 11%.
While democracy’s progress has not been without setbacks, the overall trend shows more nations embracing governance that empowers citizens and safeguards freedoms.
Trend 9: Longer Lasting Peace
Wars between nations are becoming less common — and far less deadly. Over the past 50 to 70 years, interstate conflicts have steadily declined, with fewer casualties when they do occur.
This “Long Peace” coincides with a world where more countries are democratic, economically stable, and interconnected. Wealth and trade seem to be powerful deterrents against conflict, paving the way for a more peaceful global community. Yes, some wars occur, and conflict isn't completely eradicated but they’re far lesser than at any other point in time in the past three or four centuries.
Trend 10: Living Safer Lives
Natural disasters still happen, but their death tolls have plummeted. Since the 1920s and 1930s, the likelihood of dying from a natural catastrophe — be it a flood, earthquake, drought, storm, wildfire, landslide, or epidemic — has fallen by nearly 99%.
Advances in science, technology, and disaster preparedness have made the world a far safer place for everyone.
Looking Ahead with Balance
While challenges certainly remain, we must avoid tending to catastrophe bias — the tendency to focus solely on worst-case scenarios while ignoring progress and potential — that often overshadows progress. Bailey and Tupy’s analyses remind us that rational & informed discourse, backed by credible evidence, is vital for tackling complex issues like climate change, resource management, and inequality.
Yes, there are problems to solve, of course, but we must also recognise the significant advancements we’ve made. Let’s not allow negativity bias to overshadow the positive momentum driving us forward.
Furthermore, a balanced worldview is essential for facing future challenges with optimism and creativity.
So is the world getting better or worse? — It certainly seems like things are pointing towards positive progress.
(This article originally appeared on my LinkedIN newsletter ‘WithYourSound You Kill The Inc.’)
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