Decoding The Butterfly Effect — Putting Chaos Theory Into Perspective
Is the butterfly effect really possible? It depends on how you look at it
The notion that everything is connected & that small changes, tiny occurrences, or instances can result in a larger event or events taking place has been toyed with & been a matter of debate ever since Newtonian physics gave way to Einstein & quantum physics(which Einstein initially balked at). Newton’s laws suggested a certain order & predictability in the universe — that his laws that explained the universe could govern a sort of predictable model of how the universe functions.
While the debates raged on since Newton, after the spooky discoveries of quantum mechanics in the 20th century that idea quickly faded. The universe that quantum physics depicted at the sub-atomic level was a highly intricate yet less predictable & chaotic universe.
What Is Chaos Theory?
Chaos Theory has its roots in Newtonian physics, in that it studies random or unpredictable behaviour in systems, but is governed by deterministic laws. The connection with Newtonian models being the 'governed by deterministic laws’ part. There are various reasons why it’s called Chaos Theory but apart from studying chaos or the behaviour of unpredictable(or chaotic) systems, it entails the adoption of two stances that are at odds with each other i.e. randomness & determinism.
Determinism in philosophy is for another piece, but in essence, determinism is all about cause & effect — cause A leads to effect B. However, determinism in science or scientific determinism is the idea that all events, including future ones, are completely predictable by past events and the laws of physics or laws of the system.
Imagine the universe like a giant game of billiards (snooker or pool whatever you prefer). The way the balls move now (the present) is determined by how they were struck before (the past) and the rules of the game (the laws of physics).
With knowledge of these three things —
Initial Conditions: The starting point of the game. This includes the exact position and velocity (speed and direction) of each ball.
Laws of Physics: The movement of the balls is governed by well-defined laws of physics, like Newton's laws of motion. These laws dictate how the balls will interact with each other and the table (collisions, bouncing off cushions).
Predictable Outcome: If we know the exact initial conditions of every ball (position and velocity) and the exact laws of physics, we could theoretically calculate exactly how the balls will move, collide, and bounce around the table for any amount of time.
However, Chaos Theory argues that it is still impossible to predict the billiards game even with knowing these conditions. Apart from the conditions such as the angle the ball is hit, the speed & velocity of the shot from the cue, how the player strikes the ball and the collisions with other balls, it further argues that subtle factors like the air conditioner’s movement of the wind in the room, the air pressure in the room, the humidity in the air, the air temperature, & (for the sake of this article) even a butterfly flying into the room from the open window & flying onto the player’s face while he takes the shot, all result in unpredictability.
Coming back to deterministic physics, if we knew the exact starting conditions (the position and momentum of every single thing in the universe) and the exact laws of physics, then someone with super powerful calculations (like a supercomputer) could theoretically predict anything that will ever happen. This is a thought experiment called Laplace's Demon.
Determinism in physics points towards being able to predict complex systems & complex occurrences in the universe. However, Chaos Theory challenges this considerably.
As explored in AEON’s article Chaos & Cause they suggest the following examples:
“Consider a simple faucet. At low pressure, water flows in a smooth, or laminar, pattern. As pressure increases, the flow remains steady but broadens slightly. At one critical point, however, marked by no more than a tiny pressure change, we see a ‘phase transition’ – the orderly flow suddenly becomes turbulent, exemplifying chaos: the sensitivity of nonlinear systems like fluids to minor changes, leading to unpredictable outcomes.
Think about the movement of a small pebble rolling down a mountain slope. Tiny variations in its starting point, uneven terrain, soil density, and even wind direction can drastically alter its path and final position. For instance, imagine we drop a pebble at a specific location and it comes to rest in another location. Imagine we run a simple experiment, dropping the pebble one millimetre away from where we dropped it in the first place. If the pebble’s movement is slightly altered by external factors like wind, hitting a patch of highly dense soil or a large rock, its speed could increase dramatically, ultimately stopping in an unexpected location 5,000 mm away from where it landed in the first drop.”
In essence, Chaos theory explores how seemingly random behavior can emerge from systems that actually follow strict rules.
A recipe can produce several different types of cakes depending on tiny variations in mixing or baking.
Several pebbles thrown down a mountain could result in a snowball effect or a landslide.
In the latter example, it has:
Sensitive initial conditions: The size, location, and force with which each pebble is thrown are all initial conditions. Chaos theory tells us that tiny differences in these starting points can have a significant impact on the outcome.
Unpredictable outcome: Depending on the specific conditions, the pebbles could cause a small avalanche, a single rockfall, or even nothing at all. The exact outcome is highly sensitive to those tiny variations in the starting conditions.
Deterministic system: While the outcome seems random, the physics of gravity, friction, and momentum still govern how the pebbles move. It's a deterministic system that exhibits chaotic behavior.
This example highlights the key features of chaos theory:
Deterministic rules (physics)
Sensitivity to initial conditions (pebble variations)
Unpredictable long-term outcomes (avalanche vs. nothing)
The pebble scenario effectively demonstrates how seemingly insignificant differences can cascade into dramatically different results, which is the essence of chaos theory.
Chaos theory reminds us that complex systems, like the weather, the stock market, or global economies etc., can be highly unpredictable despite being governed by fixed laws.
Furthermore, Chaos theory focuses on such systems where even though the underlying rules are deterministic (fixed and predictable), small differences in starting conditions or other conditions can snowball into dramatically different outcomes over time.
This is often called the butterfly effect — where a butterfly flapping its wings can one day lead to a hurricane.
Edward Lorenz & The Butterfly Effect
As explained in AEON’s piece, the story of Edward Lorenz & the Butterfly Effect is a rather uncanny one…
“Lorenz was a meteorologist. Indeed, he studied the weather and tried to find ways to improve forecasting – predicting when a storm might arise, where it would turn when it would die down, and so on. During his investigations at MIT, Lorenz developed a simple computer model to track hypothetical weather systems in a targeted environment (the actual world).
As the story goes, Lorenz entered some numbers into his computer program and left his office to get a coffee. When he returned, he discovered a shocking result.
His model was relatively simple. It used a set of differential equations to represent how air moves and temperatures fluctuate. Lorenz was repeating a simulation he had run earlier – but he had rounded off one variable from .506127 to .506, a seemingly inconsequential alteration. To Lorenz’s surprise, that tiny alteration drastically transformed the model’s output.
Lorenz’s groundbreaking work uncovered a startling phenomenon: small changes can have enormous, unforeseen consequences, leading to impenetrable barriers in long-term prediction. We call this phenomenon the butterfly effect, but its scientific foundation lies in the sensitivity of nonlinear systems to initial conditions.”
Lorenz coined the term for his theory as “the butterfly effect” using the metaphor of a butterfly flapping its wings suggesting it could set off a chain of events leading to a hurricane. It was based on the tiny calculation he rounded off after his coffee break & the effect of the seemingly inconspicuous parameter in his weather forecasting program. Essentially, he used this analogy to describe chaos theory.
But the question is, ‘Can the inconsequential flutter of a butterfly’s wings truly trigger a hurricane?’
The answer is both yes & no…
It’s All About Perspective — Physics or Humane
From the standpoint of physics, it is possible. While from a humane perspective, it isn’t.
From a physics standpoint, it is possible because of the sensitivity of chaotic systems to thousands of minute conditions & parameters.
From a humane lens, we tend to think of events from a cause & effect standpoint & in this case, the cause is completely unrelated to the final event i.e. a butterfly flapping its wings resulting in a storm.
They all count, suggests AEON’s article:
“What does this mean for the butterfly effect? Quite simply, it means that when we look at causality through the lens of physics, the flapping of a butterfly’s wings counts as a contributing cause to a later storm. But so too is everything else within the storm’s ‘past light cone’. All flapping butterflies, a breaching whale in the Pacific, a young child playing football in Edinburgh, and the Moon’s gravitational effect… all count as causal.”
In another example, explaining the human perspective AEON adds:
“Consider my efforts to prevent a common cold: I focus on controllable factors like diet, sleep and who I interact with, and I disregard seemingly irrelevant factors like butterflies and distant whale breaches. The hook is this: while remote and uncontrollable factors like the movement of a butterfly can have some minor physical influence, the movement of the butterfly does not make a difference to my physical health. Philosophers often spell this out in terms of probability: I can alter the probability of catching a cold by ensuring I get sufficient sleep, while the probability is unaltered by catching a butterfly and keeping it safely in a jar.
It’s yet another example of physics vs our human experience. I touched upon this in an older article titled ‘Does The Universe Exist If We Aren’t There To Observe It?’. To briefly explain that article, the physics suggests an observer independent universe is impossible, at least according to experiments in quantum physics & the work of theoretical physicist John Wheeler, but we ‘know’ that the universe has existed for billions of years & will continue to exist with or without us.
Does The Universe Exist If We Aren’t There To Observe It? — According To Quantum Physics
In the end, it’s all about perspective & the standpoint we take. Chaos Theory & The Butterfly Effect may hold true as per physics but according to the human perspective, and differentiating using our human intuition, the butterfly effect isn’t very realistic.
From our perspective as human beings, the butterfly can’t be one of the causes of the storm because storms cannot be influenced by butterflies.
However, while the butterfly could have an almost quantum-level-like effect on a storm theoretically, a model for predicting a storm can’t include butterflies because butterflies can’t affect a storm in a way that we can predict or model it. Furthermore, the butterfly flapping its wings doesn’t make a difference to the happenings of a storm or any weather occurrences since it’s logically unrelated.
Chaos Theory & The Butterfly Effect are interesting concepts that aim to explain order & randomness but our limited knowledge of the universe and our frame of reference & the inherent unpredictability of chaotic systems make perfect predictions nearly impossible (even with AI) — it’s just our best guess…
In the ongoing quest to understand our universe & the human experiece of consciousness, it’s a reminder of the interwoven wild choreography of chaos that governs our universe.
But as a bit of reflection, the truth is, the butterfly effect, from where we stand, is less about a butterfly causing a storm and more about the humbling realization of how little we can truly influence in the grander scheme of things.
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